2016 Holiday Forecasts

Up Early Designs

The magic of the holiday season is upon us. Though for many, it is anything but magic. More like a period of heightened nerves, a bit of frustration and long hours.

As a former retailer, I remember the shelves stocked in anticipation of great sales. And each year the same thing happened. Though the sales would come, the period of slowness that preceded was nerve wracking.

A period of pondering, “just how am I going to pay those invoices in January?” It’s as if each year some cruel trick was played upon me. But in reality, I simply was uncalibrated. Anticipating holiday sales a little too early.

So what is in store for this year’s holiday season? It’s anyone’s guess. And that is exactly what the National Retail Federation shares (full article found here) with their 2016 holiday forecast.

First, some perspective. Over the previous ten years, the average growth has been 2.5% during the holiday season. Not overly impressive, but considering the economy in which we live, any growth is a welcome site.

So when a 3.6% forecast is made for 2016, retailers will go into this season with a bit of optimism. Below is a snippet from their report.

“WASHINGTON – The National Retail Federation announced today it expects sales in November and December, excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales, to increase a solid 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion — significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since recovery began in 2009. Included, NRF is forecasting non-store sales to increase between 7 and 10 percent to as much as $117 billion.”

Also from the NRF report, below is a 24 page slide deck with more insight into their forecast.

NRF Holiday Shopping Forecast